What’s the Market Outlook for 2019?

Recently, the CFA Research Institute—a global association of investment professionals holding the Chartered Financial Analyst designation—offered the following observations from Joachim Klement, CFA: At the beginning of 2018, a survey of strategists working at major banks around the globe indicated that their median predicted return for the S&P 500 in 2018 was 10.3%. The realized… Read more »

Building Blocks Chart

The Building Blocks Chart is a pictorial depiction of the relative performance of asset classes over calendar-year periods. What’s the likelihood that last year’s winners will repeat? Should the investor avoid asset classes exhibiting recent poor performance? As the table illustrates, the relative performance of asset classes can shift dramatically from year to year. Investors… Read more »

Building Blocks Chart with Hypothetical 60/40 Portfolio

Our annually updated Asset Class Building Blocks Chart ranks the more important asset classes by their performance for each of the trailing 20 calendar years, with the best performing asset class for each year appearing at the top of its column, and the worst at the bottom. The chart includes the performance of a hypothetical… Read more »

2018 Q4 Quarterly Update

The markets gave us a reminder these past few months that they can and do decline, sometimes with little warning and astonishing rapidity. After more than nine years of fairly consistent upward movement, all major stock indices were in the red for both the fourth quarter and the year. Some of the popular indices whipsawed… Read more »

2019 Forecast: Predictions Will Be Wrong, Random or Worse

Each year, Barry Ritholtz writes one or more great columns on how well predictions made in the previous year panned out. Here is this year’s version: By Barry Ritholtz www.bloomberg.com December 7, 2018, 6:30 AM PST Every year, the prognosticators come out of hiding. You have to wonder why they bother, given their record. This… Read more »

What you need to know about RMDs

Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) are annual withdrawals that owners of tax-deferred retirement accounts[1] must take once they reach age 70½.[2] Benjamin Franklin popularized the notion that “in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes”; in exchange for allowing contributions and growth in tax-deferred accounts to escape taxation for so… Read more »

2018 Q3 Quarterly Update

Domestic large caps supplanted shares of smaller companies on the leaderboard this past quarter; the return for the thirty companies comprising the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell just shy of double digits, registering in at 9.63%, whereas the broader S&P 500 registered a respectable 7.71% for the period. While bested, shares in smaller companies still… Read more »

‘Zero Cost’ Investments are Here

It appears as if the era of ‘no cost’ investments may be upon us. Fidelity has announced that they are launching several no-load Fidelity ZEROsm index funds which have no annual operating expenses.1 Although Schultz Collins [SC] welcomes this development, it may be a bit premature to buy these funds. Consider, for example, the Fidelity… Read more »

2018 Q2 Quarterly Update

Shares in larger domestic firms registered positive returns for the quarter with the Dow Jones Industrials up 1.26% and the S&P 500 advancing 3.43% for the ninety-day period. Small company stocks in the U.S. were the stellar performers for the quarter with a 7.75% return for the Russell 2000 Index. Measured in local currency larger… Read more »

2018 Q1 Quarterly Update

Back to normal: That may be one way to describe the recent volatility in the equity markets, following last year’s unusually steady upward trending stock returns. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) had one of its largest increases ever, surging 80% during the first quarter amid investor concerns about inflation, rising interest rates and global trade… Read more »